Country Risk Ratings
>About this Category
Sites in this category produce country ratings specific to business risks: trade credit loss, sovereign default, confiscation/expropriation, war, and so on.
AM Best's Country Risk Ratings
http://www.ambest.com/ratings/countryrisk.asp
AM Best rates the quality of insurers, and to do that, one needs country risk. Best's country risk ratings are available by clicking on the "complete list of Tier assignments" link. A description of the rating methodology is also thoughtfully provided.
Coface @Rating
This website alone will make you re-evaluate your negative pre-conceptions of the French. Coface is France's export credit underwriter, offering insurance against the risk that when you sell something to a foreign company, they won't pay their bills (for whatever reason -- from bankruptcy to international war).
For a long list of countries worldwide, Coface's fine website provides at the very least a country risk rating (corresponding to the risk of trade credit loss). For most countries you also get a terse assessment of the reasons for the rating, divided into "Assets" and "Weaknesses" and an outlook. For some countries there's actual data on the number of bankruptcies and the number of international payment defaults -- very hard to obtain elsewhere. Vive la France!
KEYWORDS: risk for exporters, economic analysis, economic stability
Ducroire-Delcredere Country Risks
http://www.ondd.be/webondd/website.nsf/weben/Country+risks?OpenDocument
Belgium's a small country, but -- perhaps to compensate? -- its export insurer's website looms large. A superb graphic interface takes you to risk ratings for over 200 countries and territories. These ratings are a cut above, with separate indicators for short-, medium- and long-term export transactions; and war, expropriation and funds transfer risks. An added bonus is Belgian attempts at English: "synthetizing charts," "exportations," etc. -- so cute!
One caveat: almost all credit insurance sites, including this one, display risk ratings reflecting the "OECD Consensus" -- an international agreement on country risk levels. The Consensus ratings are realistic (based on actual losses) but not very forward-looking. These ratings reveal this year's risks -- not next year's.
KEYWORDS: risk for investors, risk for exporters
ECGD Cover Policies
http://www.ecgd.gov.uk/home/ps_home/overseasinvestment/overseasinvestment_oii.htm
The Export Credit Guarantee Department is the UK's public trade credit and political risk underwriter. For exporters, there's a premium calculator and a section that displays cover possibilities country-by-country, but Brits are stingy with the data -- you're better off visiting the Coface, Ducroire or even Exim sites. Where ECGD shines is with a link (hard to find, at the bottom of the page) to a spreadsheet showing premiums country-by-country for investment risks (expropriation, war, transfer). The higher the premium, the riskier the country.
KEYWORDS: risk for investors, risk for exporters
EKN Cover Possibilities
http://www.ekn.se/templates/CountryList.aspx?id=190
Which credit insurer has the world's best website? Sweden's EKN has put forth a good effort. There's no information on investments (try the UK's ECGD or Belgium's Ducroire) but you can select a country and see risk ratings for medium- and long-term export transactions, as well as various categories of buyer - an unusual touch. Unfortunately, for most countries, you have to speak Swedish to understand the results. English speakers, try Angola first.
KEYWORDS: risk for exporters
Euler Hermes Export Credit
http://www.agaportal.de/en/aga/deckungspolitik/laenderklassifizierung.html
So very German: clean, well-designed, austere. EH runs Germany's official export credit scheme, and while the site isn't the world's most full-featured, it does have one simple risk rating, for risks to exporters, for nearly every country. Ganz gut.
KEYWORDS: risk for exporters
Exim Cover Availability
http://www.exim.gov/tools/country/country_limits.html
The U.S. may be the greatest military power in history, but its trade credit insurer's website sucks. Well, slickly designed, but stingy with the country risk info, anyway. The cover schedule for exports is somewhat useful -- the more categories of cover are X'd out, the riskier the country. But it doesn't hold a candle to Coface or Ducroire.
KEYWORDS: risk for exporters
Fitch Sovereign Ratings
Fitch is the third member of the sovereign ratings triumvirate, together with Moody's and S&P. Fitch's ratings -- of the risk of sovereign default -- are free (click "issuer list"), as is a PDF document showing historical ratings. (See also the Fitch review in the "Reviews" section.)
KEYWORDS: risk for creditors
Moody's Sovereign Ratings
http://www.moodys.com/cust/default.asp
To know what Moody's economists are thinking, you'll need to register -- unlike the other sovereign raters, Fitch and S&P. After we registered, we started getting deluged by spam from porn sites. Though it could be a coincidence. In any event, if you register, the ratings and some analysis are free. (See also the Moody's review in the "Reviews" section.)
KEYWORDS: risk for creditors, economic analysis, economic stability
OECD Consensus Country Classifications
http://www.oecd.org/document/49/0,2340,en_2649_34171_1901105_1_1_1_37467,00.html
The risk ratings for most public credit and political risk insurers are based on the "OECD Consensus" ratings. Many countries have government agencies that offer insurance to exporters against "political" risks. The problem is, this insurance could be turned into an unfair subsidy -- if the government offers the insurance to exporters for extremely low rates, even for risky export destinations.
The idea of the OECD Consensus is to prevent countries from pretending that destination countries are less risky than they really are. The Consensus sets minimum risk ratings for markets around the world (rating floors), based on analysis and claims data from credit insurers. Current risk ratings are viewable as a PDF file.
KEYWORDS: risk for exporters, risk for investors
Standard & Poor's Sovereign Ratings
S&P assigns sovereign risk ratings to the countries that issue debt on global markets. These ratings, from C (lowest) to AAA (highest), assess the probability that a country will default on its debts. Viewing the ratings is free and doesn't even require registration. Analysis press releases (the rationale for upgrades and downgrades) are also free for a short while after they appear. Essentially, the ratings measure economic risk. (See also the S&P review in the "Reviews" section.)
KEYWORDS: economic analysis, risk for creditors, economic stability