Country Research and Analysis
>About this Category
Websites in this category produce in-depth country analysis, research, and forecasts. Not just data, not just background information -- not just what, but why (and what next?).
Coface @Rating
This website alone will make you re-evaluate your negative pre-conceptions of the French. Coface is France's export credit underwriter, offering insurance against the risk that when you sell something to a foreign company, they won't pay their bills (for whatever reason -- from bankruptcy to international war).
For a long list of countries worldwide, Coface's fine website provides at the very least a country risk rating (corresponding to the risk of trade credit loss). For most countries you also get a terse assessment of the reasons for the rating, divided into "Assets" and "Weaknesses" and an outlook. For some countries there's actual data on the number of bankruptcies and the number of international payment defaults -- very hard to obtain elsewhere. Vive la France!
KEYWORDS: risk for exporters, economic analysis, economic stability
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy
Tired of playing second fiddle, Canada raises the bar with this site, which is more user-friendly than the CIA's State Failure project (see separate entry) and includes occasional country assessments as a bonus. The base aim is similar: uncover the factors that correlate with violent political conflict, with a view to early warning and prevention.
The CIA did a massive data search and analysis, with results you can read in a quite well-written report. The CIFP, a joint academic-government project, takes an alternative approach, telling us what we need to look out for -- a history of conflict, environmental stresses, ethnic divisions, militarization, etc. -- and offering this data to the public. A well-done interface spits out the base statistics, and irregular risk reports provide country risk ratings as well as dry, detailed country risk assessments including scenarios. Reports on hot topics such as corporate social responsibility also appear on the site.
David Carment writes -- please ask people to reference our work when they use our research, methodology and data.
KEYWORDS: ethnicity, environment, environment statistics, democratization, political violence statistics, political stability, military statistics, country scenarios
EIU Country Pages on the Economist Magazine Website
http://www.economist.com/countries
Hey, the first time it's free. The Economist Intelligence Unit here employs that old drug-pushin' tactic, posting abbreviated reports gratis on the Economist magazine's website. Background info on politics, the economy, and some social and economic data are provided -- along with plenty of enticing links to the pay stuff. The "Forecast" section is a cut above the ordinary. One usually doesn't see forward-looking analysis dispensed without charge. Just be careful not to accidentally buy anything.
KEYWORDS: political system, political parties, history, political forecast, economic forecast, economic structure, unemployment statistics, labor cost statistics
IMF Article IV Consultation Reports
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/aiv/indexc.htm
Click on a country and then hunt for "Article IV." The Article IV consultation reports (free in PDF) are as fine a piece of research as you're likely to find produced by the public sector. The IMF staff economists harangue each country about its weak points on a periodic basis; these reports record this tongue-lashing. Owing to the recent fashion for good governance this critical review increasingly covers not just economic policy but also political institutions. There's also an excellent data section at the end including detailed budget numbers and IMF forecasts.
KEYWORDS: economic forecasts, budget statistics
Moody's Sovereign Ratings
http://www.moodys.com/cust/default.asp
To know what Moody's economists are thinking, you'll need to register -- unlike the other sovereign raters, Fitch and S&P. After we registered, we started getting deluged by spam from porn sites. Though it could be a coincidence. In any event, if you register, the ratings and some analysis are free. (See also the Moody's review in the "Reviews" section.)
KEYWORDS: risk for creditors, economic analysis, economic stability
NewNations.com
Newnations.com is a strange bird, a site dedicated to analysis of emerging markets "finance, business, trade..." that is, for reasons unexplained, supported by World Concern, a Christian charity. For starters there's background information (politics, history, economy) similar to what you can get elsewhere. But the country outlooks and updates are a cut above. These sometimes read more like journalism than country analysis but are often quite interesting. It's all free of charge, though it requires registration.
KEYWORDS: political analysis, economic analysis
QualMatrix Emerging Markets Blog
Hoping to publicize its service delivering prices on exotic emerging market bonds (see our blurb on QualMatrix in the Reviews section), QualMatrix has put up a blog and discussion forums on its full-featured site. The Blog is a daily feed of emerging markets news, gossip and analysis; the Forums are a discussion venue for analysts and investors. For some sections, registration is required but free.
Standard & Poor's Sovereign Ratings
S&P assigns sovereign risk ratings to the countries that issue debt on global markets. These ratings, from C (lowest) to AAA (highest), assess the probability that a country will default on its debts. Viewing the ratings is free and doesn't even require registration. Analysis press releases (the rationale for upgrades and downgrades) are also free for a short while after they appear. Essentially, the ratings measure economic risk. (See also the S&P review in the "Reviews" section.)
KEYWORDS: economic analysis, risk for creditors, economic stability