By when? By 2020, argues Bruce Gilley – China will be a democracy. “The laws of social science grind away in China, as they do elsewhere, whether people like it or not.”

Gilley is a respected journalist, and makes a provocative argument – recent reforms creating individual liberties, local democracy and a growing middle class will push China inexorably towards political freedom. It’s worth reading and debating Gilley all the while – as one can certainly do. The counter-example of Singapore beckons. Even democratic Japan was a one-party state until the 1990s.